Forbes mag recently explained that the sickest states in the Union are those which have the most Democrats per capita - Ill, NY, Conn, CA, and NJ. Most of us are not surprised by this, yet it is telling in the larger sense. The malady which impacts these states now threatens to impact the entire nation.
Forbes measured unfunded pension liabilities, credit ratings, debt as a % of GSP, and a "moocher ratio" that compares gov’t employees, pension burdens and Medicaid enrollees to private-sector employment (that would be the lamprey vs the host, would it not?). Kent Redfield, prof emeritus of political studies and public affairs at the Univ of Ill explains that the stronger unions and larger appetite for public programs is the reason these states are in the tank. "Unions," he says, "have more influence in Democratic-controlled states," and ,"..where they’re strong you have bigger demands for social services and coalitions ....that push up debt."
Now we have a president who is literally owned by the unions. He too is a big fan of the protection racket. More, he has never seen a "public program" he didn’t like.
OK, so now what? We have an economy which is struggling to recover. We all agree on that. And most of us understand that what we need is less intrusion, fewer burdens on free enterprise - the JFK and Reagan way.
It won’t happen with this guy.
As we have explained before, employers are not simply waiting to hire, given demand. If you think they’re sitting still, you’re mistaken. Instead, they are this very moment making changes which will completely emasculate the work force - permanent changes driven by self preservation. That is why productivity has exploded.
Now folks, some 70% of GDP is based on consumer spending. This ain’t about to go anywhere, certainly not erupt, until employment expands. Employment is not about to expand, not as long as employers know that BO will be around for three more years. Big mistake in the voting booth, huh?
Our lefty friends must refrain from surface feeding. That is why they are frustrated; they don’t understand the implications of their own ideology. These types made jokes galore about Bush’s library. We wonder sometimes about their libraries.
Suggestion to the left: Take a week off. Read Milton & Rose Friedman’s Free To Choose, then F.A. Hayek’s The Road To Serfdom. This will do all of us a world of good.
Robert Craven
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Watch Out
When one’s about to be taken, again, it may be an advantage to know it’s on the way. That’s the purpose of this sketch.
Obama has hatched a second stimulus package. The first was a tragedy. We knew it then; most believe it now (although, perhaps for the wrong reasons). Key is not that much of the $ hasn’t been spent. Key is that it did not matter if the whole shebang was spent in 10 minutes. It’s still a wash, at best.
Except for a few crack pots (Paul Krugman comes to mind) most understand that this $ comes from somewhere, a "somewhere" where it would be put to better use - the private sector. The gov’t doesn't maintain a reserve fund to spark jobs for goodness sake. Congress either taxes it or they borrow it out of the economy (or a compliant Fed inflates). No new demand is created. It is, as we have repeated many times before, a zero-sum transfer of existing demand. And most economists understand it to be utter nonsense.
Yet on Feb/17, BO, when referring to the $862 bln stimulus package, said that, "One year later, it is largely thanks to the recovery act that a second depression in no longer a possibility." That is a lie; he knows it to be a lie. But since most of the masses may not get it, BO figures he can slip another one by.
We know what would work. So do a whole bunch of other reasonable observers - across-the-board tax cuts for families, individuals and businesses; then, stand back and let ‘er roll. JFK did that. Reagan did that. Not this statist. It’s so easy.
And there are other, no-cost measures which would spark jobs. These are no secret either. As detailed by the Heritage Foundation, among these: Freezing spending and rescinding unspent stimulus funds; Reforming regulations to reduce unnecessary business costs, such as repealing Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act; Reforming the tort system to lower costs and uncertainty facing businesses; Suspending the job-killing Davis-Bacon Act (DBA); Reducing taxes on companies' foreign earnings if they bring those earnings home.
Government’s job is to establish the rule of law, then stand back. This was the Founders intent.
Well, no potential employer in his right mind will hire now, when the rules change almost daily.
Obama, the fool, has misread his mandate. American politics are not far left politics. Of course there are odd balls, but most Americans won’t tolerate this nonsense. Yet the cornucopia of tax hikes currently on the table include higher levies on capital-gains, top earners, dividends, investment (via the payroll tax), carbon, millionaires, banks, stock transactions, and estates (via the death tax). It’s a long lefty wish list. Are you kidding me?
Robert Craven
Obama has hatched a second stimulus package. The first was a tragedy. We knew it then; most believe it now (although, perhaps for the wrong reasons). Key is not that much of the $ hasn’t been spent. Key is that it did not matter if the whole shebang was spent in 10 minutes. It’s still a wash, at best.
Except for a few crack pots (Paul Krugman comes to mind) most understand that this $ comes from somewhere, a "somewhere" where it would be put to better use - the private sector. The gov’t doesn't maintain a reserve fund to spark jobs for goodness sake. Congress either taxes it or they borrow it out of the economy (or a compliant Fed inflates). No new demand is created. It is, as we have repeated many times before, a zero-sum transfer of existing demand. And most economists understand it to be utter nonsense.
Yet on Feb/17, BO, when referring to the $862 bln stimulus package, said that, "One year later, it is largely thanks to the recovery act that a second depression in no longer a possibility." That is a lie; he knows it to be a lie. But since most of the masses may not get it, BO figures he can slip another one by.
We know what would work. So do a whole bunch of other reasonable observers - across-the-board tax cuts for families, individuals and businesses; then, stand back and let ‘er roll. JFK did that. Reagan did that. Not this statist. It’s so easy.
And there are other, no-cost measures which would spark jobs. These are no secret either. As detailed by the Heritage Foundation, among these: Freezing spending and rescinding unspent stimulus funds; Reforming regulations to reduce unnecessary business costs, such as repealing Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act; Reforming the tort system to lower costs and uncertainty facing businesses; Suspending the job-killing Davis-Bacon Act (DBA); Reducing taxes on companies' foreign earnings if they bring those earnings home.
Government’s job is to establish the rule of law, then stand back. This was the Founders intent.
Well, no potential employer in his right mind will hire now, when the rules change almost daily.
Obama, the fool, has misread his mandate. American politics are not far left politics. Of course there are odd balls, but most Americans won’t tolerate this nonsense. Yet the cornucopia of tax hikes currently on the table include higher levies on capital-gains, top earners, dividends, investment (via the payroll tax), carbon, millionaires, banks, stock transactions, and estates (via the death tax). It’s a long lefty wish list. Are you kidding me?
Robert Craven
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Where Are We?
The key BLS employment release of Feb/5 showed that jobs fell slightly in Jan/10, having declined in 24 of the past 25 months. About 8.5MM jobs have been vaporized since Dec/07, the beginning of the past recession. The level of employment is at its lowest since Sep/99. On the "bright" side, the pace of job loss has slowed.
There’s jobs in a nutshell folks. Doesn’t look too red hot does it? Yet Jan/29 we found out that Q4 GDP rose by 5.7% (% change qt to qt at an annualized rate), following +2.2%, Q3. Wow! The recession is over. Pretty good stuff here, until we look just sub surface and find that almost all of the strength was due to a spurt in exports, not domestic demand. And the 5.7% gain is put in perspective when we reflect that the economy expanded on +0.1% over the past year.
Most of us now understand this recovery is a jobless recovery. We and many other observers have highlighted just why that is so, detailing repeatedly the array of burdens placed on potential employers by the current administration, slowing the process of resuscitation.
No one argues with us any longer. JFK and Reagan ushered in quick recoveries to the recessions they inherited by the simple method of across-the-board tax cuts, then standing back.
But since BO has three years to go, employers figure not this time. The result? Productivity has exploded (+6.2%, Q4) and unit labor costs have collapsed. We don’t need to be an economist to figure this one out. Business has had enough of Obama; permanent changes are being made so that even as domestic demand expands, the "normal" increase in employment that goes with it, is no more. This time there will be no recovering "all those lost jobs" as many of these will fail to materialize. Ongoing, business will do without.
There are two ways to look at this development. Certainly it is great for business, change that would not have been made without the statist agenda looming ahead - in this case, the mother of invention. It is bad news for workers, esp medium to low skill workers, who now have nothing on the other side.
Robert Craven
There’s jobs in a nutshell folks. Doesn’t look too red hot does it? Yet Jan/29 we found out that Q4 GDP rose by 5.7% (% change qt to qt at an annualized rate), following +2.2%, Q3. Wow! The recession is over. Pretty good stuff here, until we look just sub surface and find that almost all of the strength was due to a spurt in exports, not domestic demand. And the 5.7% gain is put in perspective when we reflect that the economy expanded on +0.1% over the past year.
Most of us now understand this recovery is a jobless recovery. We and many other observers have highlighted just why that is so, detailing repeatedly the array of burdens placed on potential employers by the current administration, slowing the process of resuscitation.
No one argues with us any longer. JFK and Reagan ushered in quick recoveries to the recessions they inherited by the simple method of across-the-board tax cuts, then standing back.
But since BO has three years to go, employers figure not this time. The result? Productivity has exploded (+6.2%, Q4) and unit labor costs have collapsed. We don’t need to be an economist to figure this one out. Business has had enough of Obama; permanent changes are being made so that even as domestic demand expands, the "normal" increase in employment that goes with it, is no more. This time there will be no recovering "all those lost jobs" as many of these will fail to materialize. Ongoing, business will do without.
There are two ways to look at this development. Certainly it is great for business, change that would not have been made without the statist agenda looming ahead - in this case, the mother of invention. It is bad news for workers, esp medium to low skill workers, who now have nothing on the other side.
Robert Craven
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
