Today’s key jobs report for Oct is in keeping with the economic scenario we have come to expect - a recovery which has assigned the jobs sector to drag (while herding beef in the old days, the unfortunate cowboy assigned to "drag" gathered all the dust). Let’s take a look.
We lost another 190M jobs in October, bringing the number lost this year to 3.8MM. Unemployment is now 10.2% Yet just last week we were to understand that the economy grew at 3.5%! What gives here folks?
From Lee Ohanian, an econ prof at my old alma mater (UCLA), "It's not even a jobless recovery; it's a recovery with more job losses," said UCLA economist Lee Ohanian. "The idea of having essentially no net job creation after a remarkably severe recession is a real pathology for the U.S. economy."
And why? As we have highlighted in past blogs, all other recoveries carried employment right along with them. Why not this time? Answer - Extremists creations from an extremist administration.
Employers are spooked. They’d rather grow more efficient (at significant initial cost) and hope to never have to hire again. This is why so-called Non-farm productivity rose by 9.5% Q3 vs expectations of 6.5%! Productivity is now 4.3% above its year ago level.
No one in his right mind will hire now facing Obamacare and cap & trade, all the rest.
There are answers. One championed by several observers is a proposed tax credit for employers. At a cost of $12,000 per employee, a heck of lot cheaper than the $112,000 reported for the stimulus plan. Or, what we have favored all along - a cut in payroll taxes. Presto - employment. There are others, all sorts of solutions, yet all of them a threat to the far left.
For those of the chattering class who may lament, may complain that business remains poor, look no further than your own party.
Robert Craven
Friday, November 6, 2009
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