More have joined us in sensing vigor ahead. GDP estimates, especially estimates for consumer activity are now being revised higher, an event we predicted earlier.
One estimate is Greenspan’s; he now predicts a much higher 3.5% for 2011. Knowing his track record, this gives us pause! Maybe a second take is in order. Well, suppose we’ll be alright despite this endorsement. Thus, let’s look for more positive surprises in the near term.
Speaking of Greenspan, speaking of false prophets, careful with all of this. The media is quick to manufacture seers. It’s good business but dangerous for the listener/viewer.
If there isn’t a track record it’s just noise.
Some individuals are indeed given to profound insight, an occasional blockbuster. Soros in one of these. Bacon is another. Roubini is another. Recall that Roubini predicted the housing crisis of Q4 ‘08. The rest were looking in the other direction. Yet all great strategists realize the power of insight is ephemeral. No one has it all the time. The very best are just that because they respect their limitations.
Problem is that Roubini or Nassim Taleb (of Black Swan fame) or others can be caught in a vortex if they are not careful. The media gains ownership, making them out to be something they are not. Ego may cooperate. When for example Roubini was taken in by the fanfare, he shed his power. He forgot that though gifted, his gift is not for all seasons. Others too have made major calls, had major triumphs but when they misread this as a sign of omnipotency, they invariably met difficulty.
In forecasting, wisdom resides in knowing one's limitations, in never being just too secure, in acknowledging that the business of the future is to be dangerous.
Robert Craven
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