Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Paladin No More

This am it was clear that manufacturing around the world had slumped, in unison. From Poland to Hungary to Russia, from the UK to the EU, from South Africa to China, back to Spain, a quick stop at the US; all of the manufacturing surveys, and all at once, and all the same - a major shedding of momentum. Most, still positive, but a considerably slower rate of expansion.

Fascinating! We have monitored this sector for 20 years and we have never before witnessed such uniformity of result. Why? Because never have we witnessed such uniformity in cost of input (and thus, the squeezing of margins). This is tied to the Q1 Middle East upheaval triggering crude, and, the Federal Reserve’s reckless policy triggering higher commodity costs world wide. These have hit the consumer and manufacturer simultaneously.

Robert Craven

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