It is very easy to allow today’s NFP result to imprint one’s view ahead, to gain more leading muscle than it deserves, and, just as easy to allow recent consumer confidence reads to gain more muscle than they deserve.
The consumer never heard of the Conference Board; Michigan means football. Not knowing they are supposed to be in a sour mood, they continue to spend.
Chain store sales were up 4.4% in Aug. A broader measure by Master Card for July-Aug had sales up 3% yr to yr, the largest increase since 2006!
Recall from Econ 1-A that consumer activity represents maybe 70% of the economy.
Robert Craven
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