An authority figure gave the market crowd permission to “see” what had been plainly visible all along – vigor in US jobs creation and spending, and the obvious – momentum ahead. Suddenly street economists have revised GDP from 1.5% to 3%. Suddenly world institutions can’t sell debt fast enough, nor own enough equities.
Past many years we have seen similar episodes, near parallels in fact; that does not make this one any less fascinating.
The world market crowd’s epiphany has fit very nicely with desk anchors set earlier.
There are many ways our insight could have been exercised - the Euro strip and the longer term structure two of these. But desks don’t need to parrot us; they have their own methods. The value we provide, our product really, is a clear view of the economic landscape just ahead.
Crude will remain a significant threat. Iran must get their choreography just right. They have no intent to bomb anybody. This is all about posturing.
There is only one real solution to the problem – internal dissent and the mullahs tossed out. Dissenters were abandoned by Obama two years ago. A new executive may make the difference.
Robert Craven
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