We are not to blame Obama for our economic ills just as Marcus Tullius Cicero knew some 2000 years ago not to blame Ceasar. “Do not blame Ceasar,” said Cicero, “blame the people of Rome who have so enthusiastically acclaimed and adored him…blame the people who hail him when he speaks in the Forum of the new, wonderful good society…meaning more money, more ease, more security, more living fatly at the expense of the industrious. Julius was always an ambitious villain, but he is only one man.”
The results of Nov/6 cast a pall over the US economy. East-coast weather and E-Z events merely provide a distraction, cover, camouflage.
We noted earlier that readers were to look for surprising vigor in two sectors – jobs creation and discretionary spending – given an endorsement of free enterprise, Nov 6. That was to be translated to the bottom line Q1 by the simplest of means - the curve, Euro strip, and the selling of US debt to both the UK and E-Z.
We noted also that clients were to look for something less than expected from these two key sectors given an extenuation of what has been a failed experiment. That will be the result just ahead, even assuming a resolution to the so-called “fiscal cliff.” One needs only to glance at headlines such as this one – “Medical Giant Stryker cuts 1170 jobs, citing ObamaCare” - to know that consumer discretionary spending just ahead will wilt. This kind of thing scares the pants off almost everyone. You don’t need a model to figure that out.
Other sectors will not contribute enough at the margin to do much good. Manufacturing for example will go nowhere quickly as the sluggishness of overall economic activity and final demand, the ending of the inventory rebuilding cycle and worries about the global economic and political outlook will keep a lid on any rebound. With the inventory cycle complete, manufacturing will need to detect a real spurt in consumer durable goods spending before kicking in. That won’t happen.
We have monitored the US economy now for over thirty years; never have we seen such a kick-in-the-gut delivered to those who fire the US engine. Only the malaise delivered by Carter compares. The voter breakdown clearly shows that those receiving some kind of government largesse outnumbered those competing in the marketplace. Until it is mandatory for every high school senior to prove in a written test that he or she understands F.A. Hayek, we will remain in the swamp.
Just ahead: We all know that weather will distort certain key reads so that for example jobs numbers will not be taken at face value, near term. Weaker consumer prints will be similarly dismissed. But most economists will look for a rebound, Q1. Instead, the clear risk is for something less.
We are no longer are interested in selling in the US (S 10yr) to either the UK or the E-Z; the next opportunity may be in fact to own US debt vs these credits.
Robert Craven
The results of Nov/6 cast a pall over the US economy. East-coast weather and E-Z events merely provide a distraction, cover, camouflage.
We noted earlier that readers were to look for surprising vigor in two sectors – jobs creation and discretionary spending – given an endorsement of free enterprise, Nov 6. That was to be translated to the bottom line Q1 by the simplest of means - the curve, Euro strip, and the selling of US debt to both the UK and E-Z.
We noted also that clients were to look for something less than expected from these two key sectors given an extenuation of what has been a failed experiment. That will be the result just ahead, even assuming a resolution to the so-called “fiscal cliff.” One needs only to glance at headlines such as this one – “Medical Giant Stryker cuts 1170 jobs, citing ObamaCare” - to know that consumer discretionary spending just ahead will wilt. This kind of thing scares the pants off almost everyone. You don’t need a model to figure that out.
Other sectors will not contribute enough at the margin to do much good. Manufacturing for example will go nowhere quickly as the sluggishness of overall economic activity and final demand, the ending of the inventory rebuilding cycle and worries about the global economic and political outlook will keep a lid on any rebound. With the inventory cycle complete, manufacturing will need to detect a real spurt in consumer durable goods spending before kicking in. That won’t happen.
We have monitored the US economy now for over thirty years; never have we seen such a kick-in-the-gut delivered to those who fire the US engine. Only the malaise delivered by Carter compares. The voter breakdown clearly shows that those receiving some kind of government largesse outnumbered those competing in the marketplace. Until it is mandatory for every high school senior to prove in a written test that he or she understands F.A. Hayek, we will remain in the swamp.
Just ahead: We all know that weather will distort certain key reads so that for example jobs numbers will not be taken at face value, near term. Weaker consumer prints will be similarly dismissed. But most economists will look for a rebound, Q1. Instead, the clear risk is for something less.
We are no longer are interested in selling in the US (S 10yr) to either the UK or the E-Z; the next opportunity may be in fact to own US debt vs these credits.
Robert Craven
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