Today’s Jan Ind Production print (-1.2%) with manuf down 1.5% triggered analysts to call for the end of the UK economic world as we know it – “It’s all over,” chimed in one economist, who along with the rest missed the result by a country mile.
That’s fine. But we’re responsible for the bottom line; we’re not immune to results, but like a plumber or roofer, are held accountable. And that is why we have highlighted one very logical way to make good through the storm – avoid outrights like the plague and concentrate on the UK curve. We have not been handed opportunity like this every day.
Our clients (and hopefully our readers) have been long this spread from early Jan. Results have been quite satisfactory. Still, course of least resistance remains wider. Thus, today’s print is an excuse to look to set a long position (or related trade), not to look for a contraction. And why is this?
The view will grow for further accommodation from the Bk of England. And further accommodation in the face of gathering price pressures means an expanded term structure.
Don’t over-intellectualize this one. Back away. Sense the forest for the trees.
Robert Craven
That’s fine. But we’re responsible for the bottom line; we’re not immune to results, but like a plumber or roofer, are held accountable. And that is why we have highlighted one very logical way to make good through the storm – avoid outrights like the plague and concentrate on the UK curve. We have not been handed opportunity like this every day.
Our clients (and hopefully our readers) have been long this spread from early Jan. Results have been quite satisfactory. Still, course of least resistance remains wider. Thus, today’s print is an excuse to look to set a long position (or related trade), not to look for a contraction. And why is this?
The view will grow for further accommodation from the Bk of England. And further accommodation in the face of gathering price pressures means an expanded term structure.
Don’t over-intellectualize this one. Back away. Sense the forest for the trees.
Robert Craven
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