Let’s take a quick look at where we’ve been, our track record. For purposes of this blog we limit strategy to an item or two. Thus, readers were advised to own (L-S) the UK term structure or something similar on Jan/10, 5-10 then 109; 2-30 then 288, and, the reasons why. Readers were advised Feb/13 to realize half the gains - 5-10 then 121, 2-30 then 310 – and stay with the balance.
Last, 106, 285; that is, just about where the curve was when we originally bought it.
Now what?
The E-Z remains a wild card; we’ve never pretended to know what these folk may do next. Flight to sanctuary may continue to retard progress; UK fundamentals will not.
We have price pressures which accelerated at the fastest pace in 9 months and a central bank which has just been given the ok by Osborne to ignore the same. We have a situation where most observers continue to under-estimate the consumer and the services industry, and export potential. We have short lines at the unemployment office. A dead-cat bounce is already priced in for manufacturing.
What is there not to like about this spread? Well, maybe US contagion. Readers may recall that we had expected more of a negative reaction from the US consumer and corporate planner to events in Washington than did indeed materialize, at least so far. We expected more weakness in consumption and capital spending plans and employment. We still do. But not being journalists, we need to abide by some standard of delivery, and so our plan was to sell the US term structure early Jan. This was taken in for a very modest loss, early Feb. The idea was to have the UK and US positions on at the same time, then snub the looser and remain with the winner.
Robert Craven
Last, 106, 285; that is, just about where the curve was when we originally bought it.
Now what?
The E-Z remains a wild card; we’ve never pretended to know what these folk may do next. Flight to sanctuary may continue to retard progress; UK fundamentals will not.
We have price pressures which accelerated at the fastest pace in 9 months and a central bank which has just been given the ok by Osborne to ignore the same. We have a situation where most observers continue to under-estimate the consumer and the services industry, and export potential. We have short lines at the unemployment office. A dead-cat bounce is already priced in for manufacturing.
What is there not to like about this spread? Well, maybe US contagion. Readers may recall that we had expected more of a negative reaction from the US consumer and corporate planner to events in Washington than did indeed materialize, at least so far. We expected more weakness in consumption and capital spending plans and employment. We still do. But not being journalists, we need to abide by some standard of delivery, and so our plan was to sell the US term structure early Jan. This was taken in for a very modest loss, early Feb. The idea was to have the UK and US positions on at the same time, then snub the looser and remain with the winner.
Robert Craven
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