We’ve omitted the UK for several weeks, for the simple reason we’ve had nothing new to contribute.
April/4 we noted that we had identified a flaw common to most economic models, so that there would be an under-shoot to key releases, and particularly an under-shoot to 1) private services and 2) manufacturing. With the July manuf PMI at a 28 month high, and with today’s PMI Services report at the fastest pace since records began (1998) and blowing through all estimates, that insight translated satisfactorily.
Key to those interested in capturing FI price change is to understand where the majority of observers have gone wrong; that is, the Achilles heel to most models. That is our method.
Next, our sketch of Apr/23 – Stay With It George – resulted in outrage; half a dozen or so of our readers demanded they be immediately redacted from our distribution list and never, ever wanted to hear from us again. Darn. Yet we do have an enlightened administration, or as we wrote Apr/23, compared to that which went before. This administration has had the courage to cut spending; it is the revenue side – tagged to a recovery, which is lagging; yet that won’t be for long given that we have been right about the UK.
Robert Craven
April/4 we noted that we had identified a flaw common to most economic models, so that there would be an under-shoot to key releases, and particularly an under-shoot to 1) private services and 2) manufacturing. With the July manuf PMI at a 28 month high, and with today’s PMI Services report at the fastest pace since records began (1998) and blowing through all estimates, that insight translated satisfactorily.
Key to those interested in capturing FI price change is to understand where the majority of observers have gone wrong; that is, the Achilles heel to most models. That is our method.
Next, our sketch of Apr/23 – Stay With It George – resulted in outrage; half a dozen or so of our readers demanded they be immediately redacted from our distribution list and never, ever wanted to hear from us again. Darn. Yet we do have an enlightened administration, or as we wrote Apr/23, compared to that which went before. This administration has had the courage to cut spending; it is the revenue side – tagged to a recovery, which is lagging; yet that won’t be for long given that we have been right about the UK.
Robert Craven
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