Insight can deliver results but it is courting real trouble to forget that these are ephemeral in nature. All of us have stuck with strategy just a day too long.
In the Spring we isolated a flaw common to most UK economic models; well, not the models actually but the observers, almost all of whom were driving at 90, gazing in the rear view mirror; a perfect case of group-think in economics. Once we had that in hand we in effect had the financial headlines in hand. And that is exactly how things worked out.
Key is to understand just when the analytical horde will catch on. We updated through August that there were still pleasant surprises to come. And indeed there were, especially in services and in manufacturing, sectors isolated early on.
And now, after having been severely beaten about the head and shoulders for three months, have economists finally sobered up? That’s generally within the time for a re-set; but our hunch is not this time.
Thus, we can look from more from the dear ‘ol UK economic engine than is priced in. And inflation reads are not coming down any time soon. And we have a stubborn central bank governor who thinks that arguing with the market will provide results.
Look for Gilt prices to ease further.
Robert Craven
In the Spring we isolated a flaw common to most UK economic models; well, not the models actually but the observers, almost all of whom were driving at 90, gazing in the rear view mirror; a perfect case of group-think in economics. Once we had that in hand we in effect had the financial headlines in hand. And that is exactly how things worked out.
Key is to understand just when the analytical horde will catch on. We updated through August that there were still pleasant surprises to come. And indeed there were, especially in services and in manufacturing, sectors isolated early on.
And now, after having been severely beaten about the head and shoulders for three months, have economists finally sobered up? That’s generally within the time for a re-set; but our hunch is not this time.
Thus, we can look from more from the dear ‘ol UK economic engine than is priced in. And inflation reads are not coming down any time soon. And we have a stubborn central bank governor who thinks that arguing with the market will provide results.
Look for Gilt prices to ease further.
Robert Craven
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