Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Post Turtles Running the Show?

We must be dreaming.

Or, could it be that Fed management is actually handled by post turtles? You know, like Obama - he didn’t get on top of that fence post by himself, he doesn’t belong there, he doesn’t know what to do while he’s up there, he’s elevated beyond his ability to function, that kind of turtle. 

Obama’s try at economics was “The Stimulus,” except that there was none.  Very early on into that debacle we warned, and did so repeatedly, that this, the economic equivalency of taking water from one end of the pool and pouring it into the other was at best a wash, more likely a retardant. We were right.

And now Bernanke has come along with his brand of “stimulus” which is also, our view, at best a wash. The QE’s have benefited equities because now companies can borrow cheap and buy back stock. But that’s it. Not much of a real sector benefit, and maybe none; one at any rate overwhelmed by the negative aspects, the uncertainty for real risk takers given we have planners at the helm.  For more on the negative correlation between Fed meddling – QE -  and growth, see this recent sketch by Forbes contributor Louis Woodhill: http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2013/10/23/as-the-job-market-falters-even-some-democrats-wake-up-about-growth/.

Today we found the FOMC bunch are just a tad more optimistic. What? They are either full-fledged post turtles, or 100% cheerleaders. Yet they will still keep the gates open they say. How long? Until we have the equivalent of a Mount St Helens blowout, our bet.


Robert Craven

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