When last addressing the UK on Feb/26 we wrote that, “Finally and key remains the consumer. It is well known that we have a record number of people in work, and of course we have the spark to consumption provided by the housing bonanza, and we have a shopper who will resort to increased leverage to linger in the mall. These things are known and priced in. It is ongoing attitude which is missing, most models.”
Sure enough, today’s Feb Retail Sales print blew expectations away (+1.8%, vs +0.3%, consensus). And why? Because UK analysts have missed consumer attitude; they still cannot capture consumer attitude in their models. But then how could they when they are speeding along at 90 with their eyes in the mirror?
Want to capture the headline on consumer activity? Go ahead; be polite and read the in-house economist’s report if you must but then as soon as you have a moment, head out to the mall. Ask a question or two. It works wonders.
Robert Craven
Sure enough, today’s Feb Retail Sales print blew expectations away (+1.8%, vs +0.3%, consensus). And why? Because UK analysts have missed consumer attitude; they still cannot capture consumer attitude in their models. But then how could they when they are speeding along at 90 with their eyes in the mirror?
Want to capture the headline on consumer activity? Go ahead; be polite and read the in-house economist’s report if you must but then as soon as you have a moment, head out to the mall. Ask a question or two. It works wonders.
Robert Craven
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