Employment

Today’s Sep Payroll number surprised to the weak side, down 95M. There was another huge decline in census workers, and a large decline in state and local gov’t workers (which can’t be a bad thing!).

Private sector jobs rose a tad (+64M). After falling steadily between Dec/07 and Oct/09, private sector employment has increased modestly every month this year, averaging 95M per month. Translation - sustained but modest increases in these jobs.

Employment is now 7.6MM below the Dec/07 peak level.

The unemployment level was unchanged (9.6%) vs expectations of 9.7%. This was due to a smaller increase in the labor force (+48M) than in household employment (+141), resulting in a decline in unemployment (-93M). There are now 14.8MM people unemployed.

Naturally this release will provide fuel for conservatives in November.

Weakness in job creation simply did not have to be; it was not baked in the cake following 2008 or any other downturn for that matter. Most of us knew that limited gov’t interference, and lower tax burdens both on consumer and business, will do the trick. It worked for JFK and it worked for Reagan.

Finally, some of us knew that it is impossible for gov’t “stimulus” plans to create jobs on a net basis. Most of Obama’s people knew it too. We must ask, have they no decency?

No, none of this had to be. It is such a tragedy.


Robert Craven