JOBS

Friday we have the employment report for September. Formally known as the Non-Farm Payroll report, the BLS gives us a monthly read for payroll in all categories except farm, domestic help, general gov’t employees and some non-profit types.

Key concern nowadays - jobs. Thus, this release carries the potential to move voter attitude significantly +/- if the result varies from consensus.

Observers expect a lift in the unemployment rate to 9.7% from August’s 9.6%. Employment is expected to be unchanged after a 54M drop in August.

The length of the average workweek is expected to remain unchanged (34.2 hours); total hours worked are expected to increase 0.1% from an unchanged figure for August.

Finally, hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%, putting the Sep level at just 1.8% above its year ago level, one of the smallest increases of the last 6 years.

“General gov’t employees” could care less what numbers pop up on Friday. For working Americans, and especially for the rest of us who are in markets tagged to discretionary spending we know payroll activity is key - trickle down.

The US economy is firing on 5 or perhaps 6 of 8 cylinders. Wonder why?

That is what the November elections are about. To the extent Obama’s agenda can be reversed and significant uncertainties plaguing the employer can be eliminated, Payroll numbers will trend higher, 2011. It’s that simple.

Most Americans understand that it's critical that we do away with all that a statist president has placed in front of a meaningful recovery - tax & nationalized energy scheme, the health heist, the stimulus tragedy, GM/union bailout, the risk of much higher taxes, corp and individual, the threat of even more gov’t control of even more segments of this economy.

With this dread ahead, no one will hire. You kidding me?

We return to our slogan: First, stop the damage. Next, make repairs.


Robert Craven