UK: With price pressures subsiding, and the Bank of England about to release a sour report, first appearance is that it does not seem too bright to be long (L - S) the UK curve. In fact, our last exercise has been disappointing, an entry recommended Nov/9 yet levels are either unchanged (5-10, 2-10) or in 3 or 4 bps (2 - 30). We don’t sense a violent leveling, so let’s stay with this one for the time being.
E-Z: We want to remain short US Notes to the German 10yr. Consensus view was caught flat footed; most recent German releases were weaker than expected, our earlier predication. It’s true that today’s Q3 GDP print was better by a tad (0.5%) but that’s ancient history. E-Z hysteria will wear and the contraction of bank lending will wear. The US suffers neither of their maladies.
US: The US (and China) will remain the primary engine through H1. Clients are best advised to set trades with that in mind.
Past many years we’ve averaged about 70% on sensing economic reality ahead; that is, reality vs a mistaken Street view. The odds simply do not favor a view contrary to that provided from this center. Therefore, at the very least, use our insight as a backstop, last check before entry.
Robert Craven
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