US releases this week carry considerable mkt-moving muscle: Oct Retail Sales on the 15th, Oct Ind Prod and CPI on the 16th, then the Nov Philly Fed survey result on the 17th. Nov/1 we said to look for a very active consumer. Correction: Now it appears that - very active - is for later. Instead, we would expect the Sales pace to fade just a little, temporarily, given the whiplash recently delivered by our European friends and the media’s role at expanding on the violence.
However, for the balance of Q4 any major surprises to be delivered from the US economy to be to the side of vigor, not weakness.
Next, we noted earlier that the German economy would slow more than anticipated. That was the result. Others have now come to understand this reality.
Next, the West demands the ECB launch a QEI. But the ECB, unlike the Fed or Bank of England has a single mandate - price stability. Anything beyond that is planning, that is, non ruled-based activity. After witnessing the Fed’s exercise and resultant commodity price increases, not a chance. That means that Germans and other members of the willfully blind, those who pretend the euro is something it is not are soon to surrender and decide to banish the miscreants. This is close to what we can expect - a smaller and more stable E - Z.
Back across the Channel, there’s more to the UK economy than is priced in, our view. The UK cannot escape the impact of a collapsing single currency but she will survive it. We are further cheered as it has become obvious that Osborne and others learned something from Obama’s “stimulus” tragedy. For example, the proposed $80 bln housing and road-building program will be financed through the private sector, IF of course it can be demonstrated that the return is there. But the spirit is spot on, that is what is key.
Government-funded jobs programs have never created new jobs on net because they amount to taking water from the deep end of the pool and pouring it into the shallow end.
Henry Morgenthau Jr. was secretary of the Treasury to FDR and key architect of FDR’s New Deal: “We have tried spending money,” he said before Congress. “We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. … And an enormous debt to boot!”
Finally, we do a bit of backpacking in the Sierras. Over the near term, the market view will grow that the US and Chinese consumer are quite capable and willing to pack the load for the rest as these recuperate at trail side.
Naturally the E-Z and Middle East remain potent wild cards.
Robert Craven
However, for the balance of Q4 any major surprises to be delivered from the US economy to be to the side of vigor, not weakness.
Next, we noted earlier that the German economy would slow more than anticipated. That was the result. Others have now come to understand this reality.
Next, the West demands the ECB launch a QEI. But the ECB, unlike the Fed or Bank of England has a single mandate - price stability. Anything beyond that is planning, that is, non ruled-based activity. After witnessing the Fed’s exercise and resultant commodity price increases, not a chance. That means that Germans and other members of the willfully blind, those who pretend the euro is something it is not are soon to surrender and decide to banish the miscreants. This is close to what we can expect - a smaller and more stable E - Z.
Back across the Channel, there’s more to the UK economy than is priced in, our view. The UK cannot escape the impact of a collapsing single currency but she will survive it. We are further cheered as it has become obvious that Osborne and others learned something from Obama’s “stimulus” tragedy. For example, the proposed $80 bln housing and road-building program will be financed through the private sector, IF of course it can be demonstrated that the return is there. But the spirit is spot on, that is what is key.
Government-funded jobs programs have never created new jobs on net because they amount to taking water from the deep end of the pool and pouring it into the shallow end.
Henry Morgenthau Jr. was secretary of the Treasury to FDR and key architect of FDR’s New Deal: “We have tried spending money,” he said before Congress. “We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. … And an enormous debt to boot!”
Finally, we do a bit of backpacking in the Sierras. Over the near term, the market view will grow that the US and Chinese consumer are quite capable and willing to pack the load for the rest as these recuperate at trail side.
Naturally the E-Z and Middle East remain potent wild cards.
Robert Craven
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