Monday, September 24, 2012

Strategy Update

Let’s take just a moment to review that strategy set recently.  For the purposes of this blog we keep it rather simple and of late have used the term structure, both for the UK and US, to illustrate our view. Of course when one has price delivery in hand for this spread, one has a leg up any number of related strategies.

UK – Readers were to look for the opportunity to own (L-S) this spread from late June (270); under no circumstances look to sell it. The spread expanded nicely, then came back in mid-July to the beginning level, at which time we advised for those not long to get that way. Last, 292, back in a tad from 296, Sep/14.

By all means remain long this spread. We were originally motivated when it was clear economists had under-shot economic reality ahead for the UK; nothing strong naturally, just a miss.  And that is what delivered the welcomed priced change. The expectation for additional BkofE firing ahead had not hurt either. Naturally the E-Z and Iran remain wild cards; still, the odds favor our view.

US – Readers were told to sell (S-L) this spread on Sep/14 following the announcement of QEIII, 2-30 then 285, 5-10, 116.  Last, 267, 107.  Unlike its UK counterpart we will not want to stick with this strategy, but take it in fairly soon. Its purpose was simply to convert mkt-crowd fawning on the Fed, to the bottom line.



Robert Craven

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