After a long summer vacation we return to the keyboard. OK, we hear the moans out there! Come on folks, buckle up!
We have known for some time that Bernanke personally favors further accommodation; that was explained in an earlier sketch (Aug/1 – US – A Primer). From his testimony in Yellowstone it is clear that we were right. Yet aside from harming seniors even further, there is little he can accomplish.
Key to understanding economic reality ahead for the United States – something our readers must be intent on doing or they are reading the wrong blog - is to understand political reality ahead, not central banking. There is no need for verbal gymnastics, no need for complexity; it is simple – a Republican victory in November will cheer large potential employers and small businesses alike.
We are not interested in taking sides; we are only interested in being right, in the bottom line. Thus, any trading operation keen on anticipating US real-sector activity is best advised to take near-term opinion polls quite seriously.
A reading of our last piece – An American Renaissance – provides background. A failed US experiment has simply placed the US job machine on hold; a new employee represents a liability, a time bomb. Unburdened of the slew of regulations and likelihood of even more, and of the constraints of higher taxes, employers will come alive. Abolish flagrant government interventionism; abolish gimmick-based central bank policy and we will really take off. We know this to be true; there is precedence here, unseen only by the willfully blind.
Certainly the world economy is less-than-buoyant; certainly the US economy is hitting on 5 or 6 of 8. And there are major unknowns (Iran, E-Z, other), as always. But what is not acknowledged at this writing, that dynamic which has not been captured by even the most optimistic models is the stirring of American enterprise which will be unleashed by the return to Founding values.
Economic planning always and everywhere ends in failure. This has been true past decades, plain as day for those who cared to look. But we move 3 ahead and then 2 back because there are always just enough of those who excel in noise making yet lack in scholarship to cause the rest of us to sit idly by as these types (hopefully) learn their lesson. This time, there may be just enough who did.
Robert Craven
We have known for some time that Bernanke personally favors further accommodation; that was explained in an earlier sketch (Aug/1 – US – A Primer). From his testimony in Yellowstone it is clear that we were right. Yet aside from harming seniors even further, there is little he can accomplish.
Key to understanding economic reality ahead for the United States – something our readers must be intent on doing or they are reading the wrong blog - is to understand political reality ahead, not central banking. There is no need for verbal gymnastics, no need for complexity; it is simple – a Republican victory in November will cheer large potential employers and small businesses alike.
We are not interested in taking sides; we are only interested in being right, in the bottom line. Thus, any trading operation keen on anticipating US real-sector activity is best advised to take near-term opinion polls quite seriously.
A reading of our last piece – An American Renaissance – provides background. A failed US experiment has simply placed the US job machine on hold; a new employee represents a liability, a time bomb. Unburdened of the slew of regulations and likelihood of even more, and of the constraints of higher taxes, employers will come alive. Abolish flagrant government interventionism; abolish gimmick-based central bank policy and we will really take off. We know this to be true; there is precedence here, unseen only by the willfully blind.
Certainly the world economy is less-than-buoyant; certainly the US economy is hitting on 5 or 6 of 8. And there are major unknowns (Iran, E-Z, other), as always. But what is not acknowledged at this writing, that dynamic which has not been captured by even the most optimistic models is the stirring of American enterprise which will be unleashed by the return to Founding values.
Economic planning always and everywhere ends in failure. This has been true past decades, plain as day for those who cared to look. But we move 3 ahead and then 2 back because there are always just enough of those who excel in noise making yet lack in scholarship to cause the rest of us to sit idly by as these types (hopefully) learn their lesson. This time, there may be just enough who did.
Robert Craven
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