In the broadest sense we can expect the UK real sector to just out-perform, Q4; that is, to do a tad better than UK economists expect it will – not every print, but most. This is because models are flawed, omitting as they do the spark provided to job creation and consumer attitude through the administration’s example.
George Osborne is now very quickly becoming a role model for responsible leadership. He told the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham the truth about the UK economy; and he told them what to do about it – 80% spending cuts vs 20% tax hikes.
Granted the UK economy is not going anywhere very quickly, yet. The Sep All-Sector PMI index indicated just that. In a nutshell, the modest growth of the service sector is perhaps 75% offset by less-than-modest manufacturing and construction reads.
Fine. Those who drive at 90 mph with their eyes in the mirror come to an unwelcomed end.
We are concerned with FI price change just ahead, either intra UK or vs other credits. Our intra-UK general strategy has been the right one – own the term structure (clients have on several variations of that trade as we keep our blog illustrations to a minimum). Wider is the course-of-least resistance into yearend for this spread. The trade will be assisted by the view for further central bank accommodation. We say the “view,” not necessarily the reality.
Next, as much of a fan of Osborne as we may be, we want to sell the US to the UK, and to do so before the election.
Obama has done more to discredit the Keynesian notion of correct economic policy than Milton Friedman and FA Hayek could have done in 100 lifetimes. Employers will be cheered by a Romney victory – the likely result; that will quickly translate into better numbers.
Robert Craven
George Osborne is now very quickly becoming a role model for responsible leadership. He told the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham the truth about the UK economy; and he told them what to do about it – 80% spending cuts vs 20% tax hikes.
Granted the UK economy is not going anywhere very quickly, yet. The Sep All-Sector PMI index indicated just that. In a nutshell, the modest growth of the service sector is perhaps 75% offset by less-than-modest manufacturing and construction reads.
Fine. Those who drive at 90 mph with their eyes in the mirror come to an unwelcomed end.
We are concerned with FI price change just ahead, either intra UK or vs other credits. Our intra-UK general strategy has been the right one – own the term structure (clients have on several variations of that trade as we keep our blog illustrations to a minimum). Wider is the course-of-least resistance into yearend for this spread. The trade will be assisted by the view for further central bank accommodation. We say the “view,” not necessarily the reality.
Next, as much of a fan of Osborne as we may be, we want to sell the US to the UK, and to do so before the election.
Obama has done more to discredit the Keynesian notion of correct economic policy than Milton Friedman and FA Hayek could have done in 100 lifetimes. Employers will be cheered by a Romney victory – the likely result; that will quickly translate into better numbers.
Robert Craven
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