Today’s advance Q3 GDP print was unusual for this series because it was actually instructive.
The report was freighted with two major clues pertaining to job creation ahead; here they are – consumer spending accelerated at 2% and business investment declined by 1.3%.
US GDP well through 2% depends primarily on increased jobs creation. Chicken or the egg you may say? No. The demand side of the equation is there; this despite woes offshore. We are the primary economic engine; we don’t need China or anyone else to break 3%. We stated a while back that consumer appetite would surprise to the upside Q3 – nothing resounding naturally, but pretty darn good considering the circumstances.
So on the margin, forget exports. We have more than enough domestic pent up demand to kick the world’s lead engine out of first gear.
What is needed then to break 3%?
Those of us who are listeners have the answer. It is not conjecture but from the horse’s mouth – interventionist policies have scared major employers half to death, with Obamacare at the top of the list. Which brings us to the 1.3% decline in business investment – it’s not worth the risk, or hasn’t been.
However, we know that when CEO’s have once again encountered a level playing field, a game where the rules don’t change every Qt, they will hire, and quickly. This is economic reality ahead, or hopefully will be.
Thus, any serious FI trading operation will look to Nov/6. And what is to be done when the failed experiment is rejected? You will sell US debt to the UK and the E-Z; you will own the US term structure and the Euro strip.
From neighbor Vic Hansen, “As we see in New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin, the cure for the present economic malaise is not rocket science — a curbing of the size of government, a revision of the tax code, a modest rollback of regulation, reform of public employment, and holding the line on new taxes. Do that and public confidence returns, businesses start hiring, and finances settle down. Do the opposite — as we see in Mediterranean Europe, California, or Illinois over the last decade — and chaos ensues.”
Easy.
Robert Craven
The report was freighted with two major clues pertaining to job creation ahead; here they are – consumer spending accelerated at 2% and business investment declined by 1.3%.
US GDP well through 2% depends primarily on increased jobs creation. Chicken or the egg you may say? No. The demand side of the equation is there; this despite woes offshore. We are the primary economic engine; we don’t need China or anyone else to break 3%. We stated a while back that consumer appetite would surprise to the upside Q3 – nothing resounding naturally, but pretty darn good considering the circumstances.
So on the margin, forget exports. We have more than enough domestic pent up demand to kick the world’s lead engine out of first gear.
What is needed then to break 3%?
Those of us who are listeners have the answer. It is not conjecture but from the horse’s mouth – interventionist policies have scared major employers half to death, with Obamacare at the top of the list. Which brings us to the 1.3% decline in business investment – it’s not worth the risk, or hasn’t been.
However, we know that when CEO’s have once again encountered a level playing field, a game where the rules don’t change every Qt, they will hire, and quickly. This is economic reality ahead, or hopefully will be.
Thus, any serious FI trading operation will look to Nov/6. And what is to be done when the failed experiment is rejected? You will sell US debt to the UK and the E-Z; you will own the US term structure and the Euro strip.
From neighbor Vic Hansen, “As we see in New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin, the cure for the present economic malaise is not rocket science — a curbing of the size of government, a revision of the tax code, a modest rollback of regulation, reform of public employment, and holding the line on new taxes. Do that and public confidence returns, businesses start hiring, and finances settle down. Do the opposite — as we see in Mediterranean Europe, California, or Illinois over the last decade — and chaos ensues.”
Easy.
Robert Craven
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