The IMF and Lagarde - recently pilloried for a major miss on the UK. That’s from the cheap seats. Economists are not trained to forecast, so our advice is to leave her and the IMF alone; there is no room for complaints.
In the case of the UK, readers know very well what she and 99% of the rest left out – attitude. We praised an “enlightened administration” a year back; this fetched a rash of cancellations from our leaf-leaning readers, and with some nasty emails to boot.
Well, it’s just too darn bad for this bunch - the willfully blind.
One of the major reasons almost all missed UK vigor, and we did not – predicting the same repeatedly – is that they overlooked the obvious: That would be expanding confidence, consumer and risk-taker alike. From Lagarde: “We got it wrong. Clearly the confidence building that has resulted from the economic policies adopted by the government has surprised many of us.” (The phrase “many of us” is generally added to punctuate the point that the forecaster had company, not the only fool on the block. That’s ok. Forgive this bunch.)
If there’s a lesson from this experience - one for us that represented a major highlight in our career - it is this: do your own homework.
Robert Craven
In the case of the UK, readers know very well what she and 99% of the rest left out – attitude. We praised an “enlightened administration” a year back; this fetched a rash of cancellations from our leaf-leaning readers, and with some nasty emails to boot.
Well, it’s just too darn bad for this bunch - the willfully blind.
One of the major reasons almost all missed UK vigor, and we did not – predicting the same repeatedly – is that they overlooked the obvious: That would be expanding confidence, consumer and risk-taker alike. From Lagarde: “We got it wrong. Clearly the confidence building that has resulted from the economic policies adopted by the government has surprised many of us.” (The phrase “many of us” is generally added to punctuate the point that the forecaster had company, not the only fool on the block. That’s ok. Forgive this bunch.)
If there’s a lesson from this experience - one for us that represented a major highlight in our career - it is this: do your own homework.
Robert Craven
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