Key is to be prepared for the economic topography just ahead. Clients (and later, readers) understood that the nasty weather, Q1, provided camouflage, cover for a genuine wilt. Yesterday’s Q1 GDP revision (-2.9%) was then no surprise; we did not have the exact print naturally, but the risk of release. Also yesterday through the Durables print, we saw that business investment has been flat, first two months of Q2. From January readers have known that corporate risk takers would quail, and why.
We’re traveling, but frankly couldn’t help but crow a bit, hence this piece. Humility is not a handicap around this shop (but then flip side is that we also owe up immediately to what might turn out to be flaws in judgment).
Observers pretty much ignored the US Q1 tanking – ancient history. Well, sometimes such a mantra can work. Not this time. Consumption was up 1% in Q1. Consumption will be lucky to break 1% in Q2, our view. No way Q2 GDP will break 2%.
The general flaw, the default in judging US activity for H1 remains the same as that we established for Q1 – any major surprises to be to the side of weakness, not vigor; or, to put that in a relative light – exactly the opposite of the anchor that has served so well regarding UK activity. Or to put it even another way: everything about conventional wisdom right now, regarding the US, is ass-backwards.
We are off on a hike, down here in lovely Alabama, and no doubt we will encounter gators, water moccasin and snapping turtles along the way (and forgot rattlesnakes).
Robert Craven
We’re traveling, but frankly couldn’t help but crow a bit, hence this piece. Humility is not a handicap around this shop (but then flip side is that we also owe up immediately to what might turn out to be flaws in judgment).
Observers pretty much ignored the US Q1 tanking – ancient history. Well, sometimes such a mantra can work. Not this time. Consumption was up 1% in Q1. Consumption will be lucky to break 1% in Q2, our view. No way Q2 GDP will break 2%.
The general flaw, the default in judging US activity for H1 remains the same as that we established for Q1 – any major surprises to be to the side of weakness, not vigor; or, to put that in a relative light – exactly the opposite of the anchor that has served so well regarding UK activity. Or to put it even another way: everything about conventional wisdom right now, regarding the US, is ass-backwards.
We are off on a hike, down here in lovely Alabama, and no doubt we will encounter gators, water moccasin and snapping turtles along the way (and forgot rattlesnakes).
Robert Craven
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