Monday, May 28, 2012

Fear

Kaiser Wilhelm II failed; so did Hitler.  Not Merkel.  She took Europe without firing a shot.

It is a new era for this region, something which all but the willfully blind must recognize.  And certainly every trading desk must recognize.

So there is angst among those nations of lesser merit; actually, there is fear. Hollande shouts (while trembling) that the Mediterranean notion of “growth” should trump Germanic notions of austerity. All over Europe the gospel is that prudent Germans are at the root of the E-Z meltdown. But in bashing thrift and industry, debtors run the risk of a backlash from a nation which is called upon to deliver even more capital to salvage the reckless. And past “backlashes” were not pleasant for those involved.

WWI, WWII – Anytime Germany was 1) unified and 2) isolated, armed conflict followed. And nowadays, there are better ways than the tank and the Messerschmitt.

Our neighbor Vic Hansen wrote the other day that, “History is quietly whispering to us in our age of amnesia: ‘I would not keep poking the Germans unless you are able to deal with them when they wake up.’”

Indeed, the old WWII constraints are eroding, if not gone. The allies had a solution – split Germany. Germany recently paid $2 trillion to become whole again.

Germany played by the rules while the EU has turned into a Ponzi racket – poorer southern members cooked their books to get German cash. Once caught, they blame their plight on German mercantilism and export-driven profit mongering.  This is as stupid as it is dangerous.

Where is America? America leads from behind, if at all. A rag-tag NATO is confused and afraid, abandoned to face a united and very rich German state.

It is this reality which is the overlay to all the rest – the noise, the phony solutions, all of it; they mean nothing.

It is the fear of German retribution, of a smothering out of what little is left of E-Z member national  identity, that is the common denominator driving every debate.


Robert Craven.

1 comment:

  1. Great words, Bob. American doesn't even lead from behind. She threatens to pull a Greece if we don't change our tune pretty soon.

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