Insight delivered for this credit has been less than satisfactory. We recently advised clients that observers would under-shoot, especially regarding the consumer. And on Apr/26 we recommended that clients look to own (L-S) the UK term structure in preparation for this event.
In fact, Tuesday’s Apr BRC chain sales print (-3.3% vs +0.5%, consensus, +1.3%, last) made a mockery of that advice. And the 2 – 30 spread, 289 upon entry, is now 282.
Naturally fight to sanctuary (Greece) had something to do with the poor performance, but key was misjudgment on our part.
Robert Craven
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