There has been the suspicion that we would replay the “Spring slowdown,” and now some releases would support that notion, including Mar NFP, Mar Durables, and recent Claims prints. It’s easy to look for a repeat, and a mistake.
We came into March with 5, maybe 6 of 8 cylinders firing. Jobs creation, consumer activity and manufacturing activity had on the whole flattened estimates from mid Q4. Clients were prepared for that reality and were able to capture price change as a result.
So suddenly this horsepower is gone, a dose of sodium pentothal in the main vein (having just put down a horse and a mule, the analogy comes to mind)? Nope. Simply a pause.
This post is brief, as may be the next few as we are remodeling, and installing a new computer system. No telling what might go haywire.
We intend to be on hand however to prep clients on the best way to trade Friday’s Apr Payroll print.
Robert Craven
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