This morning's unemployment claims.

The number of claimants for benefits fell by 36M for the week ended Feb/5, far better than forecast and the lowest level since July/08.

Now folks, there’s always the temptation to cherry pick results to fit one’s prediction. For example, we stated early Q4 ‘10 that jobs data would flatten estimates. Most measures have cooperated, but the last two payroll releases did not, or at least, nothing to rave about.

On its face, this am’s claims number provides major support to our view, or would, if not for the weather. That has a lot to do with this read no doubt, although the Labor Dept claims weather effects, which delay the filing and processing of claims, are unwinding. Maybe. From years observing this data we know there is typically a lot of volatility in the claims data between Nov and mid-Feb.

Bottom line: The jobs market is performing better than almost anyone expected, six months ago. It is not booming, but improving very gradually. Due to results of Nov/2 - the cheering of potential employers - look for acceleration in this rate of improvement.

Robert Craven