Chairman Bernanke defended his expansionary policy today. Our view is that it’s misguided.
But whatever it is, it is a stealth operation. Bernanke points to Core CPI (not the broader #) as cover for QE2, noting that Core CPI is now as low as it's been in many years. Well naturally Ben. It’s “EX” everything that’s on its way to the moon - food & energy. This is convenient for the Fed, just as it was when Art Burns decided to take food & energy out so he could fuel Nixon’s reelection. It stuck. His rationale? The Fed has no control over wheat or oil prices; these are mostly driven by weather and other acts of God.
Now of course the spike in world commodity prices is driven, not just by natural phenomena but by the Fed’s dollar-creation machine. It hits first the 40-odd countries who peg or closely peg to the $. As we noted in an earlier sketch, they either import inflation (print their local currency to buy $’s to keep the $ expensive) or they allow their currency to strengthen and tank their exports. Either way, it comes back to hit us, or a portion of it does.
Too bad for offshore folk but not to worry here in the US says Bernanke because he can exit gracefully when things become overheated. Maybe so but we don’t see how. Recall that under QE1 & 2 the Fed buys longer-term treasuries and mortgage paper through so-called recognized dealers. It pays for these bonds by crediting the banks’ account at the Fed. (If the bank wants paper $, the Mint takes care of that, and delivers the things in trucks.)
So how will Bernanke reverse? He will sell securities to this group, reversing the process by taking the money out of circulation. If he sells short-term T-bills, short term rates will move higher. If he sells longer-dated stock, longer term rates will come under pressure. They don’t own as many t-bills so we guess they’ll hammer the longer end - 2 - 10 yrs perhaps that impact all of us.
He figures he can fine tune the act but over the years we have never known the Fed to have much of a handle on anything but their traditional targets - O/N money and reserves. They are far out of their league when they try to figure the direction of longer rates.
Every prospective home buyer, corporate planner, trading operation and saver has a stake in just how they pull this off, if at all.
Robert Craven
But whatever it is, it is a stealth operation. Bernanke points to Core CPI (not the broader #) as cover for QE2, noting that Core CPI is now as low as it's been in many years. Well naturally Ben. It’s “EX” everything that’s on its way to the moon - food & energy. This is convenient for the Fed, just as it was when Art Burns decided to take food & energy out so he could fuel Nixon’s reelection. It stuck. His rationale? The Fed has no control over wheat or oil prices; these are mostly driven by weather and other acts of God.
Now of course the spike in world commodity prices is driven, not just by natural phenomena but by the Fed’s dollar-creation machine. It hits first the 40-odd countries who peg or closely peg to the $. As we noted in an earlier sketch, they either import inflation (print their local currency to buy $’s to keep the $ expensive) or they allow their currency to strengthen and tank their exports. Either way, it comes back to hit us, or a portion of it does.
Too bad for offshore folk but not to worry here in the US says Bernanke because he can exit gracefully when things become overheated. Maybe so but we don’t see how. Recall that under QE1 & 2 the Fed buys longer-term treasuries and mortgage paper through so-called recognized dealers. It pays for these bonds by crediting the banks’ account at the Fed. (If the bank wants paper $, the Mint takes care of that, and delivers the things in trucks.)
So how will Bernanke reverse? He will sell securities to this group, reversing the process by taking the money out of circulation. If he sells short-term T-bills, short term rates will move higher. If he sells longer-dated stock, longer term rates will come under pressure. They don’t own as many t-bills so we guess they’ll hammer the longer end - 2 - 10 yrs perhaps that impact all of us.
He figures he can fine tune the act but over the years we have never known the Fed to have much of a handle on anything but their traditional targets - O/N money and reserves. They are far out of their league when they try to figure the direction of longer rates.
Every prospective home buyer, corporate planner, trading operation and saver has a stake in just how they pull this off, if at all.
Robert Craven
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