Today’s result for the number of first-time claimants for unemployment benefits, week ending Mar/5, was higher than expected.
The mkt-crowd is disappointed, having been caught looking in the wrong direction Q4, they adjusted, and now feel they have been bushwhacked again. Thus, fear now is for a slacking of momentum, this sector.
No. Today’s number does not represent trend. The pace of layoffs has slowed; continuing claims will continue to decline. It is true that hiring does not yet match the pace of layoffs but that relationship will reverse, H2.
Look for significant improvement ahead in the jobs market. This was our original insight Q4. On Mar/6 we refreshed that view. If there is any flaw to St estimates for jobs ahead, it is still, even now, for an underestimation of vigor.
Clients are to fold this reality into their decision-making process.
Robert Craven
The mkt-crowd is disappointed, having been caught looking in the wrong direction Q4, they adjusted, and now feel they have been bushwhacked again. Thus, fear now is for a slacking of momentum, this sector.
No. Today’s number does not represent trend. The pace of layoffs has slowed; continuing claims will continue to decline. It is true that hiring does not yet match the pace of layoffs but that relationship will reverse, H2.
Look for significant improvement ahead in the jobs market. This was our original insight Q4. On Mar/6 we refreshed that view. If there is any flaw to St estimates for jobs ahead, it is still, even now, for an underestimation of vigor.
Clients are to fold this reality into their decision-making process.
Robert Craven
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