The beginning of each week we review that week’s scheduled eco data releases, highlighting those with mkt-moving hrsp, then predicting result vs consensus. Sometimes there are other influences which may interfere, the mkt crowd otherwise occupied (a temporary state of mind). Nevertheless, ongoing, this exercise is key to value provided by this service.
Mon (Mar/14) we predicted that releases this week would indicate more vigor ahead and building price pressures. This fits our long-held view that forecasters have yet to catch up.
Headline Feb PPI on Wed rose by double the consensus, the headline at consensus. The headline and core Feb CPI results today were both slightly higher than expected. Also today Claims for unemployment benefits confirmed the improving trend in the labor mkts, falling 16M to 385M. So far, so good.
Feb Ind Production today did not cooperate, printing -0.1% when +0.5% was expected. What happened? Manuf which makes up 75% of the total and was up nicely but utility activity tanked. It’s a mystery to us. It’s also a blip. Expect stronger readings ahead.
Finally, the key Philly Fed business outlook survey has been, over the many years we have monitored it, a reliable lead for US manuf sector trends. The Mar read today blew through expectations, making crow bait of St forecasts. The read also indicated that price pressures - “prices paid” - are rising rapidly. This of course cooperates very nicely with client anchors set earlier.
Robert Craven
Mon (Mar/14) we predicted that releases this week would indicate more vigor ahead and building price pressures. This fits our long-held view that forecasters have yet to catch up.
Headline Feb PPI on Wed rose by double the consensus, the headline at consensus. The headline and core Feb CPI results today were both slightly higher than expected. Also today Claims for unemployment benefits confirmed the improving trend in the labor mkts, falling 16M to 385M. So far, so good.
Feb Ind Production today did not cooperate, printing -0.1% when +0.5% was expected. What happened? Manuf which makes up 75% of the total and was up nicely but utility activity tanked. It’s a mystery to us. It’s also a blip. Expect stronger readings ahead.
Finally, the key Philly Fed business outlook survey has been, over the many years we have monitored it, a reliable lead for US manuf sector trends. The Mar read today blew through expectations, making crow bait of St forecasts. The read also indicated that price pressures - “prices paid” - are rising rapidly. This of course cooperates very nicely with client anchors set earlier.
Robert Craven
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