In judging energy prices look past Libya. Gadaffi may have seen his last sunrise; probably not as the mission does not target him but crude prices will drop on any optimism tagged to this conflict. If so, treat this as a correction, certainly not trend.
We opened the current chapter with a UN resolution with teeth (a rarity), then support of the Arab League (now withdrawn), then rapid mobilization. A repeat of the Iraqi no-fly zone, with us for years? Doubt it. Either way, there is much more to come in the entire region.
Most of us now realize that the old Mid East political order is disintegrating, a region that Chris Skrebowski, ed of Petroleum Review reminds us provides 36% of global oil supply and holds 61% of proven reserves.
For anyone who still clings to the notion that violence in energy prices will quickly subside after Gadaffi, witness the Yemen massacre, witness the mass protest by Bahrain's Shi'ite majority against the ruling Sunni dynasty. Witness the accompanying bloodshed, and key - tension thus sparked between the Saudis and Iran. Or witness this weekend’s mass demonstrations in Syria - “We are people infatuated with freedom.” If this does not convey a message that we are in for something profound, then better crawl back under the rock.
Key - Given the left’s emasculation of US energy independence, we’re stuck; thus it is important to understand that consensual government in the Mid East is in our best economic interest.
Democracies do not war upon one another; they find it in their own commercial interest to get along. Still, critics are everywhere. Easy to criticize from the cheap seats - the whole shebang will be hijacked by Muslim thugs. Or, no way these fanatics will ever embrace democracy. That’s no contribution, simply noise.
The easy way out is to lay a template on the thing and be done with it. It’s just too darn easy to discredit motives in a region fraught with intolerance. Sure there’s the temptation to label the whole bunch as clowns but then that’s no help. Value instead is to look for the unexpected. The unexpected will be the birth of new governments, grasping at something consensual, experimenting with what the West understands to be the rule of law, making a mess of it, but advancing in ratchet fashion nevertheless.
Finally, we return to Fouad Ajami, fellow at the Hoover Institution, “Today’s rebellions are animated, above all, by a desire to be cleansed of the stain and the guilt of having given in to the despots for so long. Elias Canetti gave this phenomenon its timeless treatment in his 1960 book ‘Crowds and Power.’ A crowd comes together, he reminded us, to expiate its guilt, to be done, in the presence of others, with old sins and failures.”
Robert Craven
We opened the current chapter with a UN resolution with teeth (a rarity), then support of the Arab League (now withdrawn), then rapid mobilization. A repeat of the Iraqi no-fly zone, with us for years? Doubt it. Either way, there is much more to come in the entire region.
Most of us now realize that the old Mid East political order is disintegrating, a region that Chris Skrebowski, ed of Petroleum Review reminds us provides 36% of global oil supply and holds 61% of proven reserves.
For anyone who still clings to the notion that violence in energy prices will quickly subside after Gadaffi, witness the Yemen massacre, witness the mass protest by Bahrain's Shi'ite majority against the ruling Sunni dynasty. Witness the accompanying bloodshed, and key - tension thus sparked between the Saudis and Iran. Or witness this weekend’s mass demonstrations in Syria - “We are people infatuated with freedom.” If this does not convey a message that we are in for something profound, then better crawl back under the rock.
Key - Given the left’s emasculation of US energy independence, we’re stuck; thus it is important to understand that consensual government in the Mid East is in our best economic interest.
Democracies do not war upon one another; they find it in their own commercial interest to get along. Still, critics are everywhere. Easy to criticize from the cheap seats - the whole shebang will be hijacked by Muslim thugs. Or, no way these fanatics will ever embrace democracy. That’s no contribution, simply noise.
The easy way out is to lay a template on the thing and be done with it. It’s just too darn easy to discredit motives in a region fraught with intolerance. Sure there’s the temptation to label the whole bunch as clowns but then that’s no help. Value instead is to look for the unexpected. The unexpected will be the birth of new governments, grasping at something consensual, experimenting with what the West understands to be the rule of law, making a mess of it, but advancing in ratchet fashion nevertheless.
Finally, we return to Fouad Ajami, fellow at the Hoover Institution, “Today’s rebellions are animated, above all, by a desire to be cleansed of the stain and the guilt of having given in to the despots for so long. Elias Canetti gave this phenomenon its timeless treatment in his 1960 book ‘Crowds and Power.’ A crowd comes together, he reminded us, to expiate its guilt, to be done, in the presence of others, with old sins and failures.”
Robert Craven
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