We want to review anchors set earlier. We are interested in anticipating price change over the short to intermediate term so we don’t care so much about absolute levels, as reality vs consensus. This is always our core exercise.
We noted that clients could expect developments in Japan and China to broach consensus view. That is, more than expected from Japan despite a strong yen; more from China despite a Bk of China braking. We noted that Germany would remain resilient. Finally, we noted that consumer and employment activity in the US would broach estimates, St consensus.
Recent reports indicate we are reasonably on track. Japan’s GDP (8/15) was better than expected, as were today’s housing starts. Little from China. Today’s German unemployment and retail sales activity were both better than expected. US consumer activity as reported Monday was better than expected. We will see on Thursday and Friday how well our employment anchor has held.
Robert Craven
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