We can remain constructive on US growth; that is, reality ahead will exceed expectations. The mkt crowd looks for stagnation. No. The US consumer, and job creation will both exceed forecasts.
Potent wild cards exist however. Most are giddy re oil prices but a Saudi / Iranian conflict would spoil that party. The "Arab Spring" is nearly forgotten but tensions remain.
Next, the EU posses a great threat. Recall we think EU developments were 70% responsible for last week’s mayhem. There has been a spike in O/N funding there; thus many institutions are finding their standard funding lines more difficult, more expensive to access. Not good. We will follow with a special on this region.
Robert Craven
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