Obama’s administration scared the pants off potential employers. This explains the slow recovery. The Nov election results cheered employer and consumer alike and the economy perked up, Q4.
Then, we spotted a piano just overhead in the form of crude, tagged to the Arab Spring. Few appreciated how severely gasoline prices would smack the consumer. And the Fed blunder (QE II) inflated food prices.
This explains a puny H1.
Now energy prices are lower. Short of a Mid East wild card event, they’ll stay there. Corp profits are stronger than expected.
Perhaps the administration has learned - if there is a single major impediment to vigor ahead, it is suffocating government.
Get out of the way.
Robert Craven
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