As part of this service we regularly review key releases for each week, and assign a risk to each. This exercise enables the client to have a good idea of mkt response, ahead of the fact. We aren’t always right, but past years, something on the order of 65 - 70% (past records on file).
To see how this works, let’s review. Last week we predicted that Claims and Retail Sales would both cheer the market. Claims was just inside of estimates but Sales blew through consensus, cooperating very nicely. This week, we predicted that CPI, Ind Production and today’s key Philly Fed would exceed estimates. CPI was at consensus, Production only a tad through, but the Philly Fed blew through estimates, also cooperating very nicely.
Thus, although we missed on a few, it was not because the result was in the extreme reverse, but at consensus. This is a key point. Rarely in the many years we have produced this product has the result gone radically in the reverse of our prediction.
Thus, clients acquire a good deal of security from this exercise.
Robert Craven
To see how this works, let’s review. Last week we predicted that Claims and Retail Sales would both cheer the market. Claims was just inside of estimates but Sales blew through consensus, cooperating very nicely. This week, we predicted that CPI, Ind Production and today’s key Philly Fed would exceed estimates. CPI was at consensus, Production only a tad through, but the Philly Fed blew through estimates, also cooperating very nicely.
Thus, although we missed on a few, it was not because the result was in the extreme reverse, but at consensus. This is a key point. Rarely in the many years we have produced this product has the result gone radically in the reverse of our prediction.
Thus, clients acquire a good deal of security from this exercise.
Robert Craven
No comments:
Post a Comment