We have been critical of planning in any theater, especially the Fed. Non rule-based activity will never work. Thus, ahead of QEII, we predicted the impact would be corrosive. This was the result, triggering a surge in commodity inflation and the collapse of consumption, Q2.
We set an anchor for clients a few weeks ago. Any surprises were to be to the side of growth, not weakness and trades were to be set with this in mind. We have used the term structure to illustrate this reality.
If we look at today’s advance Q3 GDP print, we receive further support for our anchor. Some may have noted that service spending was up 3%, the most since Q2 ‘06, suggesting broad improvement. Next, auto sales will slow Q4 but that’s alright; we see that ex-vehicle activity was up 2.5% vs 1.5%, Q2. Guess why? Because the impact of destructive Fed policy has faded; that is, income growth is keeping up with price increases.
Bernanke - now sit. Good boy.
Robert Craven
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