When most had the US economy sideways at best, we predicted more. Now, others are coming to agree. But the horse is long gone. We want to anticipate change, not react.
There are plenty of releases with the horsepower to move the market this week, among these Durables, Claims, the advance Q3 GDP, and Michigan sentiment. We cannot assign a risk to the Durables print. The risk is for Claims to come inside of expectations, for GDP to just exceed expectations (+2.3%).
We advise that clients read nothing into the Michigan result. This and other confidence measures carry little by the way of leading characteristics. For example, September confidence reads were weak, but Retail Sales improved nicely that month.
Our friends at the Fed meet Nov 1 and 2. There will be more chatter from officials ahead of that meeting, most of it designed as cheer leading.
“We are prepared to employ our tools as appropriate to foster a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability,” Vice Chair Janet Yellen said last week. Come on Janet dear, leave well enough alone.
Finally, to Europe. It's been too easy to find fault with EU types. Observers got into that habit, past two years. Gloating, they now missed the turn. We highlighted Oct/9 that there was a change in dynamic. This positive dimension will continue to unfold this week.
Robert Craven
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