Incest can produce brilliant offspring; more often, the result resembles that perched on the porch in the movie Deliverance.
The same holds true for Street research. These folks - holding hands, shouting out together in the dark. An error or what we call a "flaw" is expanded as analysts borrow from each other until the final product is horribly distorted, its parents too intimately connected.
Best to do our own sensing. In our earlier career we counted rail cars and haunted shopping mall parking lots. We don’t do much of that any more but we do listen to those in the arena, not Wall St seers. And we own as a result a good track record at closing the pattern on consumer behavior before most others.
"It doesn’t feel like 2008 out there," Jason Seidl, a New York-based analyst with Dahlman Rose & Co., said in an interview carried on Bloomberg. At his firm’s recent transportation conference with trucking, rail and air carrier executives, "no one thought we were heading into a recession."
Agreed.
Robert Craven
The same holds true for Street research. These folks - holding hands, shouting out together in the dark. An error or what we call a "flaw" is expanded as analysts borrow from each other until the final product is horribly distorted, its parents too intimately connected.
Best to do our own sensing. In our earlier career we counted rail cars and haunted shopping mall parking lots. We don’t do much of that any more but we do listen to those in the arena, not Wall St seers. And we own as a result a good track record at closing the pattern on consumer behavior before most others.
"It doesn’t feel like 2008 out there," Jason Seidl, a New York-based analyst with Dahlman Rose & Co., said in an interview carried on Bloomberg. At his firm’s recent transportation conference with trucking, rail and air carrier executives, "no one thought we were heading into a recession."
Agreed.
Robert Craven
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