We’ll have the second estimate for Q1 GDP. Though this is history, such revisions can deliver market impact. Don’t look for much this time.
Jobless Claims however packs a potential punch. Market view is now for a slowing in the one-time paladin of recovery - manufacturing. This leaves employment. The entire free world’s taken its fingernails down to the quick monitoring the US labor market. Recall that last week’s Claims release was very encouraging - claimants far below expectations. The same can be said for April Payroll (May/6) - encouraging. Thus, if tomorrow’s release is below expectations, it will be taken as a confirmation. There will be a modest market reaction. If the release if far through expectations - more claimants - it will be seen as a turning point, and greatly worry equities, sparking bonds (lower yields). These are the dynamics as we approach this event.
Robert Craven
Jobless Claims however packs a potential punch. Market view is now for a slowing in the one-time paladin of recovery - manufacturing. This leaves employment. The entire free world’s taken its fingernails down to the quick monitoring the US labor market. Recall that last week’s Claims release was very encouraging - claimants far below expectations. The same can be said for April Payroll (May/6) - encouraging. Thus, if tomorrow’s release is below expectations, it will be taken as a confirmation. There will be a modest market reaction. If the release if far through expectations - more claimants - it will be seen as a turning point, and greatly worry equities, sparking bonds (lower yields). These are the dynamics as we approach this event.
Robert Craven
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