Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Speaking of Releases

Most of us know that certain economic releases are key to market response, indeed, to our own portfolios. Active investors who ignore these do so at their own peril.

Several internet services list these events, both US and offshore. One sample: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/.

Each lists the event and its description, then assigns a volatility measure (*’s, !’s, etc). We recommend the client consult these sites. They are not competition, but a complement.

The main value is the list, with description of the details of each release. Good. That saves us the print.

The assignment of volatility by these services is sometimes accurate, mostly not, but that’s ok. That’s our job, or the beginning of it. We extract from the list just those events with market-moving muscle (ignoring the rest).

As we refine this part of our service we will eventually predict the odds of result; that is, predict which side of consensus the result will fall and we will do that on the order of 70% of the time.

Our service will then be unique to the industry.


Robert Craven

No comments:

Post a Comment