What might move the market crowd before the weekend?
There is a key US Manufacturing release today, a survey conducted by the Philly Fed which over the years, our experience, has correlated well with not just regional but country-wide manufacturing activity ahead; naturally then thus release packs muscle. It will either show a continued booming, or a slight easing in the pace of expansion. This is priced in. Only a very weak number will worry equities and push bond yields lower.
We also have Jobless Claims today. Not just US but world focus is on US job creation - we are the world’s engine (sorry China, you don’t even come close) and everyone wants to know on how may cylinders we’re burning. This release carries plenty of horsepower to either worry or cheer the market crowd. Those dependant on discretionary spending - our nursery pals, our friends who own a picture frame business, our plastic surgeon buddy - none of them are being overrun by clients. Sorry, but it’s simple - good ‘ol trickle down holds the key.
We also have Existing (Used, Pre-Owned) Home Sales today for April. The media makes quite a bit about this and related housing releases. Forget it. They don’t mean a thing in this environment. Housing is sunk and no single release will change that view. That is why (as we predicted) although Housing Starts tanked on Tuesday, the markets not only did not shudder, they did not even blink.
Robert Craven
There is a key US Manufacturing release today, a survey conducted by the Philly Fed which over the years, our experience, has correlated well with not just regional but country-wide manufacturing activity ahead; naturally then thus release packs muscle. It will either show a continued booming, or a slight easing in the pace of expansion. This is priced in. Only a very weak number will worry equities and push bond yields lower.
We also have Jobless Claims today. Not just US but world focus is on US job creation - we are the world’s engine (sorry China, you don’t even come close) and everyone wants to know on how may cylinders we’re burning. This release carries plenty of horsepower to either worry or cheer the market crowd. Those dependant on discretionary spending - our nursery pals, our friends who own a picture frame business, our plastic surgeon buddy - none of them are being overrun by clients. Sorry, but it’s simple - good ‘ol trickle down holds the key.
We also have Existing (Used, Pre-Owned) Home Sales today for April. The media makes quite a bit about this and related housing releases. Forget it. They don’t mean a thing in this environment. Housing is sunk and no single release will change that view. That is why (as we predicted) although Housing Starts tanked on Tuesday, the markets not only did not shudder, they did not even blink.
Robert Craven
No comments:
Post a Comment