Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Spending Ahead

Observers speak of a two-tiered or "barbell" recovery. What does this mean and how may it impact business planning?

We all know of vigor in low-end jobs - the Big Mac phenomena. And most of us know of the top 10% of Americans, the invested and creative class, incomes soaring.

And the middle? What middle?

The middle lags because of changes forced on major employers by an activist administration. This is not our opinion. We have it from the CEO’s themselves. Thus, a few jobs have gone overseas. Not as many as the left would like us to believe, but enough. And more than a few have disappeared entirely, never to return.
This then entails retraining and relocation.

This is why this recovery lags that of the last major recession. And it explains just why discretionary spending, especially for mid-range items, disappoints.

The trajectory or grade for spending is upwardly slopped, perhaps 25 degrees, just not the 45 degrees of that following the last major recession.

Government interference is always and everywhere a bad thing.

Keep it simple.


Robert Craven

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