Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Stuck in Lodi

But we’re back!

We want to prep for key economic releases, to anticipate the odds of response.

We noted last week that notwithstanding the result, near-term housing releases, whether up or down, would not move the market. This was true for Tuesday’s April New Homes Sales which broached expectations. The market shrugged. Why? Simple. The whole shebang is weak, in the tank, even with this improvement, far below healthy levels.

Tomorrow’s April Durable Orders number has been over the years a key market mover, even though most know that monthly fluctuations can be violent. "Durable" orders means hard goods, something with a life to it - a refrigerator, or Caterpillar D-9. These orders rose 2.5% in March, blowing through estimates.

Market tension is such that a release through expectations will mildly cheer the market but a release south of expectations will greatly worry the market. This is because a suspicion has grown that Manufacturing may now trend lower. Such a result will confirm that suspicion in the mind of the market crowd.


Robert Craven

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