We’ve got the equivalent of an economic ledger, the debits and credits, and everybody wanting to own the identity of the bottom line before the next guy.
Our purpose is to discard the overflow of information, distill what is pertinent and present that to the client. We don’t offer graphs, charts or long-winded explanations, leaving these adornments to others.
The US economy is stronger than most expected it to be a few months ago. Clients were prepared for that fact, having the understanding of reality ahead of the market crowd. Then as recently as mid-Mar we predicted employment results which would again exceed estimates. That has been the result.
Now the crowd has accepted our premise. Once they do that they are slow to let go. While they were adjusting, we identified a threat or potential debit, something corrosive to our own view for vigor - that would be crude as tied to the Mid Easter revolution. That will detract from US GDP.
So we have this situation: We have more vigor than others expected and we have a potential threat that even now most have yet to acknowledge. That’s our ledger.
The average estimate for 2011 US GDP is now 3% and was set to go to maybe 3.75% by mid Q2 (although forecasters didn’t know that). IF that is, all is equal. All is not equal. Crude prices are to erase perhaps 1% from GDP, our worst case. That’s our balancing act.
Robert Craven
Our purpose is to discard the overflow of information, distill what is pertinent and present that to the client. We don’t offer graphs, charts or long-winded explanations, leaving these adornments to others.
The US economy is stronger than most expected it to be a few months ago. Clients were prepared for that fact, having the understanding of reality ahead of the market crowd. Then as recently as mid-Mar we predicted employment results which would again exceed estimates. That has been the result.
Now the crowd has accepted our premise. Once they do that they are slow to let go. While they were adjusting, we identified a threat or potential debit, something corrosive to our own view for vigor - that would be crude as tied to the Mid Easter revolution. That will detract from US GDP.
So we have this situation: We have more vigor than others expected and we have a potential threat that even now most have yet to acknowledge. That’s our ledger.
The average estimate for 2011 US GDP is now 3% and was set to go to maybe 3.75% by mid Q2 (although forecasters didn’t know that). IF that is, all is equal. All is not equal. Crude prices are to erase perhaps 1% from GDP, our worst case. That’s our balancing act.
Robert Craven
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