Monday, April 18, 2011

Deliverance, The Movie and Standard & Poors

Remember the movie folks? Burt Reynolds put an arrow right through a good ‘ol boy whose improper intentions were directed towards his (Burt’s) friend. It wasn’t pretty.

Now we’re not making a case that S&P's types are strange or anything, like being inbred, like seeing a family reunion as a dating opportunity. No. No. In fact, these guys are sticks in the mud. No risk of them dating their first cousin. Heck. They probably don’t date at all.

These credit types are no fun. They don’t play the banjo on the porch, they don’t dance to fiddle music. Can you imagine one of them at the picnic out at the ranch? We’re all milling about, chicken and potato salad in hand, stories told, jokes aplenty, hugs all about. But who is that over there under the big oak, note book in hand, eyes downcast, a sledge hammer by his side?

Nope, they're no fun but by accident they provide some from time to time. This time, and without knowing it, they have provided a deliverance of much needed fiscal discipline.

S&P’s tinkering today was mostly ignored by institutional fixed income investors. US bond prices in fact firmed, did not tank. And why? The warning was seen as a call to discipline, one which most believed would be set in place anyway. This notation only accelerated the change. It was not seen as a prelude to a cut in US credit.

And it plays right into the hands of the most potent fiscal disciplinarian force alive today in the US - The Tea Party.


Robert Craven

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