One exercise of ours is to predict key US economic release results vs expectations. This may not provide value to all of our clients. It is perhaps of no interest to business planners, of moderate interest to investors but of course of key interest to trading desks, extending a long leg up regarding market response. An earlier product dedicated purely to that exercise was very successful.
We had advised our clients Mar/10 to expect better employment figures than consensus, following weeks. That worked well. We ended this exercise Apr/7 with that day’s Claims result a tad better than expected. We ended the exercise for the simple reason that we lost the “feel” that is required for success.
Today’s key Jobless Claims result was not as good as expected, initial claims staying above the 400M level for the second consecutive week, something that has not happened since late January.
We know that employers were cheered by results of Nov/2, further cheered as a new Congress quickly set about to make repairs. We know this, not from our own prediction, but from the words of key business leaders themselves, a chorus actually.
That change, and extended tax cuts together sparked US consumer spending, employment and spending then moving in tandem. We know spending will be slowed, near term, by higher gasoline prices. We’re not sure regarding employment, not sure if today’s figure indicates a trend.
The exercise ahead is to understand reality for both of these sectors for Q3.
Robert Craven
We had advised our clients Mar/10 to expect better employment figures than consensus, following weeks. That worked well. We ended this exercise Apr/7 with that day’s Claims result a tad better than expected. We ended the exercise for the simple reason that we lost the “feel” that is required for success.
Today’s key Jobless Claims result was not as good as expected, initial claims staying above the 400M level for the second consecutive week, something that has not happened since late January.
We know that employers were cheered by results of Nov/2, further cheered as a new Congress quickly set about to make repairs. We know this, not from our own prediction, but from the words of key business leaders themselves, a chorus actually.
That change, and extended tax cuts together sparked US consumer spending, employment and spending then moving in tandem. We know spending will be slowed, near term, by higher gasoline prices. We’re not sure regarding employment, not sure if today’s figure indicates a trend.
The exercise ahead is to understand reality for both of these sectors for Q3.
Robert Craven
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