Retail Sales for March came in this morning up 0.4%, just under expectations (+0.5%) and the weakest gain in 9 months.
In The Week Ahead we predicted that consumer spending will slow. Thus, we cautioned our clients not to take it to heart if today’s Retail Sales release was through expectations, and for the simple reason this will not be trend. Not that is over the intermediate term.
In March we predicted that forecasters - kids at the keypad - would begin to sober up, to shave their US GDP forecasts due to events triggered by Mid East unrest. Finally they have done so, on average shaving 0.7% from Q1 estimates.
We are not oil analysts and never pretended to be. We do understand however that the very real risk remains for much higher crude, and this tied to what amounts to the heart of darkness in the Middle East - potential Saudi / Iranian armed conflict. Until we may understand that is resolved, clients are to remain on guard.
Robert Craven
In The Week Ahead we predicted that consumer spending will slow. Thus, we cautioned our clients not to take it to heart if today’s Retail Sales release was through expectations, and for the simple reason this will not be trend. Not that is over the intermediate term.
In March we predicted that forecasters - kids at the keypad - would begin to sober up, to shave their US GDP forecasts due to events triggered by Mid East unrest. Finally they have done so, on average shaving 0.7% from Q1 estimates.
We are not oil analysts and never pretended to be. We do understand however that the very real risk remains for much higher crude, and this tied to what amounts to the heart of darkness in the Middle East - potential Saudi / Iranian armed conflict. Until we may understand that is resolved, clients are to remain on guard.
Robert Craven
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