We’ve got a full week of economic indicators and the first ever post-meeting press conference given by a Fed president.
Indicators are important if they carry market-moving muscle. We’d rather our clients be armed up front, than not.
We have several housing related numbers this week (beginning with today’s March New Home Sales) but none of these carry much muscle.
March Durable Orders (new orders for hard goods) on Wednesday however carries plenty of muscle, and the greater potential to worry the market than to cheer it. This key number was off 0.9% in February when it was expected to be up 1.2%. A component of this release is so-called Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments, something which is really a proxy for capital spending so it’s important. That February component was better by 1.1%. Thus, the February release was mixed but another decline in the headline number for March combined with a decline in the Shipments component will greatly worry the markets, indicating a stall.
Thursday’s Q1 GDP advance report is also key. Q4 was up 3.1%. Estimates for Q1 have been significantly reduced due to higher energy prices. Consensus is now + 2%. But even a number through expectations won’t cheer much because the market crowd is becoming a believer in our piano just overhead. Also key on Thursday is the Jobless Claims report. Recall that this number disappointed last week (higher than expected). An improvement is expected (390 vs 403). Both of these releases then carry more muscle to worry the market than to cheer it.
Wednesday we will have Bernanke’s testimony. The FOMC meets for two days this week (Tues, Wed). The policy statement will be released early (12:30 pm ET) then Bernanke’s press conference at 2:15. World markets will hang on every word. We’ll have a special issue prepping our clients for this event.
Robert Craven
Indicators are important if they carry market-moving muscle. We’d rather our clients be armed up front, than not.
We have several housing related numbers this week (beginning with today’s March New Home Sales) but none of these carry much muscle.
March Durable Orders (new orders for hard goods) on Wednesday however carries plenty of muscle, and the greater potential to worry the market than to cheer it. This key number was off 0.9% in February when it was expected to be up 1.2%. A component of this release is so-called Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments, something which is really a proxy for capital spending so it’s important. That February component was better by 1.1%. Thus, the February release was mixed but another decline in the headline number for March combined with a decline in the Shipments component will greatly worry the markets, indicating a stall.
Thursday’s Q1 GDP advance report is also key. Q4 was up 3.1%. Estimates for Q1 have been significantly reduced due to higher energy prices. Consensus is now + 2%. But even a number through expectations won’t cheer much because the market crowd is becoming a believer in our piano just overhead. Also key on Thursday is the Jobless Claims report. Recall that this number disappointed last week (higher than expected). An improvement is expected (390 vs 403). Both of these releases then carry more muscle to worry the market than to cheer it.
Wednesday we will have Bernanke’s testimony. The FOMC meets for two days this week (Tues, Wed). The policy statement will be released early (12:30 pm ET) then Bernanke’s press conference at 2:15. World markets will hang on every word. We’ll have a special issue prepping our clients for this event.
Robert Craven
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