Grandpa used to have a still, out there in the Kings River bottom land, E of Fresno. Most folk just looked the other way. All that water and all that corn mash - distilled right down to just a little bit of pure power. Quality, delivered at midnight in the back seat of a 1930, straight-eight Nash.
There are still a few talented moonshiners out there. We're thinking now of the economic variety. They have a known, consistent method and a trusted product; that is, they have a track record. All the rest are just Wall Street kids. And they make bad whiskey. It's dangerous to drink their stuff.
Our job at this center is to deliver only the Real McCoy - just a shot, clear and potent - up to the bar. You can take it from there.
In that spirit, let's look at our exercise the past six months, delivering the good stuff.
October 2010 most looked for continuing weakness. Remember? Most looked for employment and spending to go nowhere, including two business planners who happen to be our clients. We told these two to look for more vigor, and why. By December, others came to agree, discarding the bad whiskey. The economy cooperated.
Both employment and spending improved nicely. That strength carried into Q1, surprising almost everyone. By then, all of the market crowd were fans of the economy. All looked, including nearly all economists, for more of the same. They started buying the cheap stuff again. Mid-Q1 we told our two planners that was wrong, that Middle Eastern turmoil and crude would force economists to cut their estimates for GDP; they did just that, surprising nearly everyone, including themselves.
Why are employment and spending such key sectors right now? Because a lagging in both makes for the two-tiered, layered recovery and thus the disappointment for example of those who depend on discretionary consumer activity for a living.
Where are we going the next six months?
There's a governor placed on the economy now; she can't race at full power. The otherwise self-sustaining process is being hampered. Oil prices are not a blip and they are not here to stay. They are a phenomena of the intermediate term, and, an effective brake over that period. And during that period, wages will not keep up with this and other commodity-related costs; yes, those costs ex'd out by our friends at the Fed.
Another drag is that to be applied by the ECB and the Bank of China - higher official rates. That's no fun for US exporters.
Aside from these, the old Nash would be firing on 7 or her 8 by the end of Q2.
Robert Craven
There are still a few talented moonshiners out there. We're thinking now of the economic variety. They have a known, consistent method and a trusted product; that is, they have a track record. All the rest are just Wall Street kids. And they make bad whiskey. It's dangerous to drink their stuff.
Our job at this center is to deliver only the Real McCoy - just a shot, clear and potent - up to the bar. You can take it from there.
In that spirit, let's look at our exercise the past six months, delivering the good stuff.
October 2010 most looked for continuing weakness. Remember? Most looked for employment and spending to go nowhere, including two business planners who happen to be our clients. We told these two to look for more vigor, and why. By December, others came to agree, discarding the bad whiskey. The economy cooperated.
Both employment and spending improved nicely. That strength carried into Q1, surprising almost everyone. By then, all of the market crowd were fans of the economy. All looked, including nearly all economists, for more of the same. They started buying the cheap stuff again. Mid-Q1 we told our two planners that was wrong, that Middle Eastern turmoil and crude would force economists to cut their estimates for GDP; they did just that, surprising nearly everyone, including themselves.
Why are employment and spending such key sectors right now? Because a lagging in both makes for the two-tiered, layered recovery and thus the disappointment for example of those who depend on discretionary consumer activity for a living.
Where are we going the next six months?
There's a governor placed on the economy now; she can't race at full power. The otherwise self-sustaining process is being hampered. Oil prices are not a blip and they are not here to stay. They are a phenomena of the intermediate term, and, an effective brake over that period. And during that period, wages will not keep up with this and other commodity-related costs; yes, those costs ex'd out by our friends at the Fed.
Another drag is that to be applied by the ECB and the Bank of China - higher official rates. That's no fun for US exporters.
Aside from these, the old Nash would be firing on 7 or her 8 by the end of Q2.
Robert Craven
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