Earlier today we reviewed our method. In this piece, we highlight a very satisfactory result.
Late February we predicted that the risk was for at least a 1 ½% cut in US GDP tagged to oil; mid March we predicted that forecasters would catch on and would lower their US GDP forecasts in the near term.
Forecasters have cooperated very nicely. From today’s Reuters “At the start of 2011, growth looked solid. The U.S. unemployment rate was finally dropping, consumers were in a spending mood, and economists were busily upgrading first-quarter growth projections to the range of 4 percent.
Those forecasts are falling fast. Many economists now think the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 1.5 percent to 2 percent pace over the first three months of the year, and one forecaster even raised the possibility of a negative reading.”
The lesson here folks is a simple one: It is far better to anticipate major economic news events, than it is to react, far better to understand economic reality, price change ahead than be bush wacked.
Robert Craven.
Late February we predicted that the risk was for at least a 1 ½% cut in US GDP tagged to oil; mid March we predicted that forecasters would catch on and would lower their US GDP forecasts in the near term.
Forecasters have cooperated very nicely. From today’s Reuters “At the start of 2011, growth looked solid. The U.S. unemployment rate was finally dropping, consumers were in a spending mood, and economists were busily upgrading first-quarter growth projections to the range of 4 percent.
Those forecasts are falling fast. Many economists now think the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 1.5 percent to 2 percent pace over the first three months of the year, and one forecaster even raised the possibility of a negative reading.”
The lesson here folks is a simple one: It is far better to anticipate major economic news events, than it is to react, far better to understand economic reality, price change ahead than be bush wacked.
Robert Craven.
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